2019 SEASONAL RAINFALL PREDICTION (SRP)
2019 Rainfall Predictions
In recent times, man’s focus has been on adaptation to his environment as well as sustainability in what he does and how he does it to ensure a better living tomorrow. All these have come to the fore in light of the visible, undeniable and increasing changes that are being observed within man’s environment. Aside the natural swing of climate, where it could tend towards being either warm or cold per time, man’s unchecked activities has heightened the amplitude of each swing which for now happens to be a warming trend, hence global warming. According to World meteorological organization’s (WMO) greenhouse gas bulletin, atmospheric Carbon dioxide (CO2) reached 146% of it’s pre-industrial level in 2017 (405.5 parts per million (ppm)), primarily because of emissions from combustion of fossil fuels, cement production, deforestation and other land-use change. The National oceanic and atmospheric administration’s (NOAA) annual greenhouse gas index also shows that from 1990 to 2017, radiative forcing by long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) increased by 41%, with CO2 accounting for about 82% of this increase. These are pointers to more energy in our atmosphere. Indeed, 2018 gave us a glimpse of the amount of energy already present in our atmosphere. There were reports of devastating storms and floods from far away Asia and Europe to hurricanes and prolonged forest fires in the United State of America, heavy rainfall amounts within hours over the middle East, and fierce ferocious storms within the country. We had lots of structural damage to buildings, telecommunication mask was pulled down, roofs of university hostel buildings pulled off and huge tress uprooted along our major express roads amongst others. Rainfall amount were copious, settlements inundated with flood as seen in Kano, Niger and Awka states; houses caved in, properties lost, while lives were not spared. Rainfall patterns did change slightly. We had reports of unusual amounts of rains over the central states and the North as early as February, while rainfall was way beyond its annual totals over the Northeast. Change in rainfall distribution was also noticed, storms easily by passed the Federal Capital Territory and Makurdi in Benue state.